The open interest in Bitcoin futures is exhibiting a “downward speculative trend,” according to observations by Glassnode analysts.

#BTC Futures Open Interest (OI) shows declining speculative momentum. The mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) peaked and is now slightly declining, while the short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has fallen below it. This indicates that traders have been closing positions, in response to… pic.twitter.com/k1sO5yJTKh
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025

They note that the medium-term trend line (a 30-day SMA) for open interest has peaked and is now slowly declining, with the faster 7-day SMA crossing below it.

“This indicates traders are closing positions in response to uncertain market conditions,” the analysts explained.

A similar pattern is evident in Ethereum futures.

#ETH Futures OI has mirrored #BTC’s pattern with the mid-term trendline peaking in mid-December. However, the short-term trendline has since rebounded, indicating that traders are reopening positions after an initial reduction, and suggesting a renewed speculative interest. pic.twitter.com/9iw1KSTfdR
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025

“However, the short-term trend has rebounded since then—suggesting traders are reopening positions after initially scaling back, renewing speculative interest,” the experts added.

Solana-Futures Show a Different Picture

For Solana futures, the 7-day SMA remains above the 30-day SMA and continues to move upward—pointing to growing trader positions “in anticipation of volatility.”

#SOL Futures OI shows increasing speculative momentum. The short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has remained above the mid-term (30-day SMA) and is continuing to rise, reflecting that traders are adding positions and potentially positioning for increased volatility. pic.twitter.com/gVPA51EpFu
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025

Positive Signals Technical analyst Ali Martinez observed that more than 66% of traders on Binance are “sitting in longs,” betting on a Bitcoin rebound.

Now 66.38% of traders in Binance are betting #Bitcoin $BTC will rebound! Either they know something we don’t, or bunch of people are about to get liquidated. https://t.co/vLLfdaQu9L pic.twitter.com/huxRULNX5J
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 9, 2025

“Either they know something we don’t, or this group of people is about to be liquidated,” the expert quipped.

A CryptoQuant contributor known as CryptoOnchain believes Bitcoin’s price is still far from its cycle peak, as the MVRV indicator has yet to reach extremely high levels.

100-day moving average of MVRV: Bitcoin has not yet reached the top price of this cycle

“MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of… pic.twitter.com/YlNLQwgE3w
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 9, 2025