Analysts at Bernstein have forecasted that the outcome of the US presidential election could lead to significant changes in Bitcoin’s price. If Donald Trump wins, the first cryptocurrency could potentially reach a new all-time high, with estimates of $80,000–90,000. However, if Kamala Harris becomes president, analysts predict a drop in Bitcoin’s price to around $50,000. This was reported by The Block.
In the favorable scenario for Bitcoin, analysts believe the price could reach these targets by Inauguration Day, scheduled for January 20, 2025. Back in September, Bernstein shared a similar opinion, but they had anticipated a more substantial decline if Harris won—down to $30,000–40,000.
“The Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and getting it back in will be extremely difficult. Our long-term price target for the first cryptocurrency remains at $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election results,” the Bernstein experts noted.
Currently, neither candidate’s victory is priced into Bitcoin, and with both candidates’ chances rising on the prediction platform Polymarket, analysts warn of potential short-term volatility for the asset. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Trump winning is estimated at 60%, while Harris stands at 40%.
“For those who believe there is manipulation on Polymarket in favor of Trump: over the weekend, enough data was provided to confirm that the market is behaving like any public market, and sentiments may change as new data emerges,” the analysts emphasized.
Earlier, options traders had placed bets on Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by the end of November, anticipating increased volatility following the elections. Similar warnings were also issued by Tyr Capital, Bitget Research, and Standard Chartered.
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