Google Quantum AI has unveiled its latest quantum chip, Willow, which has sparked discussions in the cryptocurrency community about its potential threat to Bitcoin.

According to Hartmut Neven, head of Google’s quantum computing division, Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes, a task that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer, Frontier, an astonishing 10 septillion years — a time frame far exceeding the age of the universe.

Neven emphasized Willow’s ability to exponentially reduce errors while scaling to more qubits, solving what he described as a “key problem the industry has been working on for nearly 30 years.”

“This historic achievement, known in the field as ‘below threshold,’ marks the ability to decrease errors as the number of qubits increases,” Neven explained.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai hailed Willow as a significant milestone toward creating a “useful quantum computer” with practical applications in drug development, nuclear energy, battery innovation, and more.

We see Willow as an important step in our journey to build a useful quantum computer with practical applications in areas like drug discovery, fusion energy, battery design + more. Details here: https://t.co/dgPuXOoBSZ
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) December 9, 2024

The release has caught the attention of the cryptocurrency community, raising concerns about the risk of blockchain decryption through quantum computing. In October, Chinese researchers successfully tested attacks on certain cryptographic algorithms using quantum methods.

Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin’s Vulnerability

When asked about Bitcoin’s risk from Willow, True Ventures partner and former Google product manager Kevin Rose responded that breaking Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption would require a quantum computer with approximately 13 million qubits. Willow, in its current form, features just 105 qubits.

Q: Can Google's Willow crack Bitcoin?

Estimates indicate that compromising Bitcoin's encryption would necessitate a quantum computer with approximately 13 million qubits to achieve decryption within a 24-hour period.

In contrast, Google's Willow chip, while a significant…
— Kevin Rose (@kevinrose) December 9, 2024

“We still have a long way to go… Nonetheless, this is a remarkable leap forward in quantum computing,” Rose noted.

However, one user countered this argument, calculating that theoretically, decrypting Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm in a single day would require 124,000 Willow chips. If given a year, the task could be accomplished with just 340 chips from Google.

Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards pointed out that optimistic projections often fail to account for the exponential trajectory of technological advancement. He cited breakthroughs in AI as an example of rapid progress that was once unimaginable.

Edwards also highlighted the distinction between logical and physical qubits, emphasizing error correction as a critical factor. While breaking SHA-256 would require just 2,500 logical qubits, major companies are targeting 3,000 logical qubits within the next five years. Edwards stressed that preparing Bitcoin for quantum threats should begin now, as protocol changes would require significant time to implement.

Back in June 2010, Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto deemed the quantum computing threat highly unlikely, according to a post on the BitcoinTalk forum. However, Nakamoto suggested that in such a scenario, the network could gradually transition to a more secure algorithm like SHA-512.

Related Developments

Ava Labs CEO Emin Gün Sirer recently proposed freezing Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million BTC due to the rising risk of quantum theft. These coins are stored on old P2PK-format addresses, making them particularly vulnerable.