Before reaching the peak of the current bull market, cryptocurrencies will experience a “painful crash” around Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

Trump Truth https://t.co/RtuPQn524T
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) December 18, 2024

In his essay Trump Truth, Hayes reiterated his earlier prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, driven by the economic policies of the elected U.S. president. These policies could lead to dollar devaluation, an increase in fiat money supply, and rising demand for cryptocurrency.

In the essay, Hayes pointed out that Trump has limited time to fulfill his promises, including reindustrializing the country and strengthening the global position of the U.S. dollar.

“The market believes that Trump and his team can immediately achieve economic and political miracles. The problems that led to his popularity have been building for decades. Therefore, there are no immediate solutions, no matter what Elon Musk tells you on X,” Hayes said.

He argued that Republicans are unlikely to maintain their majority in the House and Senate after the 2026 elections. For this reason, Trump is expected to act quickly, massively devaluing the dollar against gold within the first 100 days of his presidency.

Hayes believes the U.S. dollar is currently overvalued compared to the price of gold, which stands at around $2,700 per ounce. He predicted levels of $10,000 to $20,000.

“This is a simple way to quickly make American production costs globally competitive. It will lead to an immediate return of manufacturing capacity, enabling job creation today, not five years from now,” the expert emphasized.

Major economies will be forced to respond to U.S. actions. Hayes noted that China has already indicated plans to strengthen its quantitative easing policies, further weakening the yuan.

This dynamic will drive demand for assets with limited supply, such as gold and Bitcoin, he asserted.

Given Trump’s potential economic policies, Hayes expressed doubts about creating a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin (SBR). He predicted that the administration would prioritize spending printed “empty” dollars to benefit voters rather than acquiring Bitcoin.

In contrast, Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter has promised to launch an “SBR wave” at the state level if federal authorities delay implementing the initiative.

Relevant bills have already been introduced in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.