Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has predicted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $200,000 without requiring a weakening of the US dollar.

1/ A financial advisor asked me a great question over dinner last week:

Does the U.S. dollar need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200,000?

The answer is "no." Here's why…

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 29, 2024

A Double Bet on Bitcoin

Hougan stated that Bitcoin investors are essentially making a double bet: on the cryptocurrency’s status as a safe-haven asset and on the continued erosion of trust in fiat currencies by central banks, which strengthens Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term store of value.

Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold’s estimated $18 trillion market value. Hougan believes that if Bitcoin captures half of gold’s market share, its price could surpass $400,000.

“Even if the store-of-value market triples and Bitcoin’s share remains at 7%, its price would still exceed $200,000,” he said, adding that these factors mutually reinforce each other.

For this target to materialize, Bitcoin must solidify its position as an institutional asset. However, Hougan noted that a weakening dollar is not a prerequisite for such growth.

Recent Market Movements

On October 30, Bitcoin surged above $73,000 for the first time in months but fell short of its all-time high of $73,777, recorded on Binance in March this year.

As of publication, Bitcoin is trading around $72,000.

Supporting Predictions

Bitwise’s forecast aligns with Bernstein analysts, who expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Similarly, Heisenberg Capital co-founder Max Keiser anticipates a price of $220,000.

In October, Hougan outlined conditions for Bitcoin to hit $80,000 by the end of 2024, including Donald Trump’s potential success in the US presidential elections, a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a stable crypto industry environment.