The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections, a 50-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) with new stimulus from China, and the absence of major disruptions in the crypto industry could drive Bitcoin above $80,000 by the end of the year. This was stated by investment firm Bitwise, according to The Block.

Bitwise Forecast

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, confirmed his 2023 year-end forecast, pointing to the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and the fourth halving as key events that could push Bitcoin to new heights. In his latest note, he specified that the victory of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could disrupt this scenario.

Political Factors

“The party has differing views on cryptocurrencies — from the ‘anti-crypto army’ led by Senator Elizabeth Warren to strong support from Representative Richie Torres. The issue over the last four years has been that the first controlled policy and appointments to agencies, creating a hostile environment for the sector,”
— Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise

Hougan is convinced that for Bitcoin to grow, politicians must avoid intervening in the crypto industry.

“In the absence of a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress and a Harris victory, the party will adopt a more neutral approach to the industry,”
— Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise

Chances of Success

The prediction platform Polymarket assesses the probability of full Democratic control of the legislative body at 20%, and Republican control at 33%. The probability of Trump’s victory, according to platform participants, is 53%, said the CIO of Bitwise.

Regarding potential surprises in the industry, Hougan explained that these would involve “hacks, large-scale lawsuits, and major coin unlocks.”

Growth Without Altcoins

The expert believes that Bitcoin does not require support from Ethereum, Solana, or new altcoins like Sui, Aptos, and Monad for its growth.

To reach the $100,000 mark within a few months, a drastic shift in market sentiment toward cryptocurrencies would be needed.

Bitwise Conclusion

In conclusion, Hougan noted that 2023 has already been a good year for Bitcoin, thanks to its strengthening in the mainstream among politicians and increased institutional participation through ETFs.

“Regardless of what happens this year, digital gold’s price will aim for $80,000 and much higher by 2025.”
— Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise

Bernstein’s Position

Analysts at Bernstein also forecast Bitcoin growth to $80,000–90,000 if a Republican candidate wins the November 5 elections. However, if Joe Biden is replaced by Kamala Harris, they believe Bitcoin’s price will drop to $40,000, without changing the long-term positive outlook.

Experts pointed out that the biggest divergence in favor of Trump has been observed since Harris was officially nominated as the Democratic candidate.

If the chances of Harris and Trump’s victory converge, Bitcoin will enter a sideways market, but its growth will resume if Trump strengthens his advantage.

Altcoin Market

Bernstein believes that the altcoin market will remain sideways until the election results are in. Market participants are looking for “more clarity regarding the SEC chairman,” experts noted.

Earlier, the media published a list of candidates for the head of the agency in the event of a Trump victory.

It is worth noting that Standard Chartered predicted a fivefold increase in Solana’s price if Trump returns to the White House.