Expert Links Bull Market Continuation to U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Prospects

bitcoin

The influx of new capital into cryptocurrencies will resume once the outlook for the U.S. Bitcoin Reserve becomes clearer, according to Shen Yu, co-founder of custodian Cobo and mining pool F2Pool.

He expects this to happen in the second half of the year, between July and October.

“The key factor is whether a decision on the U.S. national reserve will be made this year. If not, the bull market may be over, but for now, the probability of its continuation remains relatively high,” the entrepreneur concluded.

On February 25, Bitcoin failed to hold the $90,000 level. As of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $89,000. The total market capitalization has dropped nearly 9% to $3.02 trillion, according to CoinGecko.

According to IntoTheBlock, at current prices, only about 12% of Bitcoin addresses are in an unrealized loss— the highest level since October 2024.

CryptoQuant experts noted that large investors are buying the dip.

“26,430 BTC have just been transferred to whale accumulation addresses—most commonly associated with OTC deals and long-term holdings,” analysts reported.

Uncertainty Around the U.S. Bitcoin Reserve

The community had anticipated that U.S. President Donald Trump would make a decision on creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) as one of his first actions upon returning to the White House on January 20. This was one of his campaign promises.

The president has established a working group on digital asset markets, led by “crypto czar” David Sacks. While Sacks has called assessing the initiative a priority, no details have been disclosed. Some experts believe the administration’s cautious approach to the crypto reserve is one of the factors that could push Bitcoin below $90,000.

“Evaluating or studying is what Washington does when it has no intention of making a decision,” commented Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, reflecting market concerns.

In December 2024, Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter vowed to push for an “SBR wave” at the state level if the federal government failed to act on the initiative.

In January, the largest publicly traded U.S. miner, MARA Holdings, joined efforts to lobby for Bitcoin reserves at the state level. Related legislative proposals have been introduced in multiple states, including Utah, South Dakota, Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Texas, and others.

However, Bitcoin Laws reports that while Utah remains at the forefront of SBR adoption, similar initiatives have failed in Montana, Pennsylvania, North and South Dakota, and Wyoming.

In the U.S. Senate, Wyoming is represented by Cynthia Lummis, a well-known Bitcoin advocate. The senator has proposed a bill that would allow for the creation of an SBR at the federal level.

Community members noted that if such an initiative was rejected in the “most crypto-friendly” state, it is unlikely to gain traction in Congress.

Earlier, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Bitcoin could retrace to the $70,000–$75,000 range due to disappointment with Trump’s policies.

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