The “flywheel effect” for MicroStrategy (MSTR) is expected to persist, driven by the potential inclusion of its stock in the Nasdaq 100 index this month and heightened interest in cryptocurrencies in the U.S., according to Bernstein experts cited by The Block.
On December 10, Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst James Seyffart speculated that MSTR’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, one of the largest U.S. stock indices, could be announced on December 23. He estimated that ETF purchases of the company’s shares could amount to at least $2.1 billion.
The ever so dashing @JSeyff spilling the beans on what we already know – MSTR is coming to the Nasdaq on Friday. Then S&P500 once FASB rules change on #Bitcoin and they can show profit end of Q1. How will $2.1 Billion of immediate stock buying affect MSTR's share price? Are we… pic.twitter.com/e8w6Sv0JGN
— BRITISH HODL ❤️🔥🐂❤️🔥 (@BritishHodl) December 10, 2024
“Joining the S&P 500 may be more challenging due to a lack of revenue. However, rule changes around Bitcoin valuation could improve MicroStrategy’s chances,” Seyffart added.
Another Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, echoed Seyffart’s predictions, expecting an announcement from Nasdaq as early as December 12-13.
$MSTR is likely to be added to $QQQ on 12/23 (w/ announcement coming 12/13). Moderna likely to get boot (symbolic). Below is best guess of adds/drops via @JSeyff. Likely a 0.47% weight (40th biggest holding). There's $550b of ETFs tracking the index. S&P 500 add next yr prob. pic.twitter.com/rmTavtvWQL
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 10, 2024
Balchunas speculated that shares of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) might be excluded from the index due to a decline in its market capitalization share. Meanwhile, MSTR’s market weight has grown to 0.46%, making it the 40th-largest stock on the market.
“Many investors may question MicroStrategy’s premium to NAV (Net Asset Value) and its Bitcoin purchasing program, which relies on issuing shares and convertible debt at that premium,” noted Bernstein analysts.
However, they emphasized that this model could sustain itself for a significant period. MicroStrategy has already spent approximately $15 billion of its planned $42 billion on Bitcoin acquisitions and shows no signs of slowing down. Additionally, as the company accumulates more Bitcoin, the stock premium is expected to stabilize, they explained.
As of this writing, MSTR is trading at $400.75, up 6.2% from the day’s opening.
On December 9, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced the acquisition of an additional 21,550 BTC for $2.1 billion. The firm now holds 423,650 BTC at an average price of $60,324 per coin.