The cryptocurrency market may reach a local bottom within the next two months amid global uncertainty over ongoing trade tariff negotiations, according to a Cointelegraph report citing Nansen’s analysis.

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to unveil details of a major “reciprocal tariffs” package.

Traders fear that U.S. countermeasures could trigger a chain reaction, potentially escalating into a global trade war.

“Nansen’s data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will hit bottom between now and June,” said the company’s chief analyst Aurélie Barter.

With Bitcoin and Ethereum currently trading 15% and 22% below their yearly highs, the outcome of these negotiations will serve as a key market indicator, she added.

“Once the toughest part of the discussions is over, we’ll see a more favorable opportunity for cryptocurrencies and risk assets to finally find a bottom,” Barter predicted.

Nansen analysts noted that major U.S. stock indices and Bitcoin’s price have failed to rise significantly above their 200-day moving averages, while shorter-term metrics continue to decline.

“The fragile market psychology highlights the need for ‘good news,’ particularly regarding U.S. economic growth and tariffs,” the report stated.

Among the key upcoming events this week, analysts pointed to the release of payroll data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Nexo’s newsletter editor Stella Zlatareva confirmed that investors remain in a wait-and-see mode. However, she noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (at 44 at the time of writing) signals a slight improvement in sentiment.

“Bitcoin continues consolidating in the $82,000–$85,000 range after a period of directional recalibration in Q1. The asset is moving within this zone with key support at $82,000 and potential upside targets at $86,500 and $90,000 if overall sentiment stabilizes,” Zlatareva concluded.

As a reminder, MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $76,600 low before resuming its upward trend.