Bitcoin faces the risk of entering a downtrend as the Bitcoin Macro Index, developed by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, signals bearish divergence.

Not great. But… when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it. https://t.co/PB2OPW1VnL
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) March 28, 2025

“Not great. But if the Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t mind,” the expert commented optimistically.

Created by Edwards in 2022, the index uses machine learning to analyze a wide range of indicators. According to its description, these indicators provide “a clear view of Bitcoin’s relative value across historical cycles.” The metric does not incorporate price data or technical analysis.

Since late 2023, the Bitcoin Macro Index has been forming lower highs, while Bitcoin’s price has continued reaching new peaks. Historically, this pattern appears during bull markets but also signals the potential formation of a long-term BTC/USD peak.

Analysts at CryptoQuant identified four key warning signs for Bitcoin:

The Bitcoin IFP metric remains below the 90 SMA trendline.
Bitcoin CQ stays in the bearish zone, suggesting a potential deep correction.
The MVRV indicator is below the 365 SMA, indicating increasing selling pressure.
NUPL is also struggling to break above the 365 SMA.

“All these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term. However, none of them indicate that the asset has reached an overheated or cyclical peak. This situation is reminiscent of the carry trade crisis on August 5, 2024, which also led to a price decline due to macroeconomic factors,” experts noted, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Meanwhile, Santiment has recorded a decline in Bitcoin volumes on exchanges, signaling reduced selling pressure.